Friday, November 7, 2014

Oct. '14 NFP change guesstimate

We're late again, as it is currently 1:58am (ET) on Friday morning.  However, as usual, we'd still like to post our NFP change guesstimate.  Our model spit out an increase of approx. 195K in NFP for Oct., about 45K below the current consensus.  

ISM manufacturing and services employment sub-indexes increased during the month.  Initial claims were very low, and the ADP figure was encouraging.  However, online listings barely jumped in Oct. from a very weak Sept.  We think such lack of movement indicates deceleration in demand going forward, and drove our model to come up with such a low estimate, compared with the consensus.  Let's see what BLS comes up with this time.