Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Update ...

It is a bit late, but we thought to share with you the performance of our picks that required in-depth research.  We note that while we continue to think the overall equity market is overvalued; as displayed below, our individual picks certainly outperformed the market.  

  • The AMBlog Index is a market-weighted index consisting of our long calls. 
  • We have also included information regarding when we made certain calls and how they performed during that period, in the table below.
  • Lastly, we went pretty much 1 out of 2 on our short calls.  Facebook's (FB) overall performance, which went completely against what we had projected, offset what appeared to have been a good short call on Twitter (TWTR).  We note that we discussed these two companies and their valuations before their IPOs.






































We are in the process of updating our models on these companies as they report their latest quarterly earnings results.  We will provide updates regarding our view of the companies' stocks over time.  We are also in the process of stock screening, which will be followed by detailed fundamental research, and if 'worthy', will be posted on this blog.

Friday, February 6, 2015

Our Jan. '15 NFP change guesstimate ...

We expect approx. 200K jobs to have been added during Jan. '15.  Our estimate is below the 230K consensus, yet again.  Most regional Fed survey employment sub-indexes were lower than last month.  However, the New York Fed survey employment sub-index increased by nearly 50%.  As everyone knows, the ADP number released on Wednesday was disappointing.  Combined with lower employment indices in both manufacturing and service ISM numbers, the not so impressive increase in online job postings in Jan. indicates what we believe will be a disappointing figure released by BLS on Friday morning.

Lastly, this weekend we will finally do what we kept promising the last couple of months, which is update most financial models of the companies that we recommended.  We will also provide some figures showing how our recommendations performed in 2014 and since they were published.