Friday, March 16, 2012

Feb. CPI increased 2.9% Y/Y, below our 3.02% estimate and inline with the consensus. CPI, excluding food & energy, also came in lower than our estimate; 2.2% vs 2.3%. This was also pretty much inline with the consensus. While these figures may bring a bit of relief, we note that no matter how much the US tries to tap into its oil reserves, the threat of an attack on Iran will keep oil prices and gasoline prices at high levels. In addition, yesterday's PPI results did indicate that producers are facing higher costs, which will ultimately be passed down to the consumers via higher prices. Lastly, we believe at aroun 1400, the S&P 500 is fairly valued. The further it goes above that level, the more extreme a pull-back will likely be. Of course, the futures indicate that the market will be reacting positively to the CPI numbers.

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