Sunday, June 30, 2013

Jun '13 Mfr. ISM & NFP Projections ...

We have our projections for two of the market moving economic data that are being released this week, manufacturing ISM and the BLS employment report.

We estimate manufacturing ISM of 51.6, higher than the 50.5 consensus.  After seeing improvements in most of the regional manufacturing survey results, especially in the Philadelphia Fed survey, combined with last month's very disappointing 49.0, we think we will see a slightly bigger bounce in June than what many economists have estimated.  We note that our so-called more optimistic projection is not an indication of faster economic growth.  The manufacturing ISM index will be released on Monday (7/1).

BLS employment report is scheduled to be published on Friday (7/5).  We estimate NFP change of only +125K, significantly below the 161K consensus.  Increase in non-seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims, along with not-much improvement seen in regional business surveys, we think can be viewed as indications of a disappointing June employment report.  Of course, given the ongoing multi-year trend in more-than-normal economic data revisions, who knows, maybe the May NFP figure will be revised down, making the June NFP change look a bit better.  But again, we expect a miss.

Other economic data to be released in the upcoming week include the ADP employment report, the Challenger Job-Cut report, non-manufacturing ISM, and initial jobless claims. 

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