Thursday, December 5, 2013

Q3 GDP guesstimate ...

We thought to add our second estimate of Q3 GDP growth rate.  We're expecting an annualized rate of 2.9%, slightly below the Street's 3.1% estimate.  Improvements in manufacturing and services data, along with modest growth in employment and consumption, helped by lower oil and gasoline prices, have helped drive Q3 GDP growth a bit higher.  We note that such growth has not yet 'made much noise' in many Americans' wallets as wage growth continues to be disappointing.  In addition, lack of higher inflation rates indicate that the economy needs to be growing at a higher rate.  While net exports may have helped the GDP in Q3, we think it'll be the other way around in Q4 which is dominated by Christmas season likely lowering net exports.  However, higher government spending will likely help Q4 GDP.  Again, for Q3's second estimate, we think the annualized growth rate will be 2.9%.  BEA will release the data on Thursday morning (12/5).

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