Thursday, February 6, 2014

Jan. '14 NFP change guesstimate ...

BLS is releasing the NFP and unemployment rate figures tomorrow morning.  The Dec. '13 numbers were impacted by bad weather, supposedly.  For this reason, we expect some revision of the Dec. figures.  Regarding Jan., believe it or not, we think the change in NFP will be higher than the current consensus; 220K vs 181K.  We note that we have not assumed any revision for Dec.  The range of guesstimates for NFP change is a very wide one, as many are not sure just how much the Dec. number will be revised.  Of course, don't be surprised if there is a miss, and BLS and the uber-economy-bullish CNBC guys blame it on the rain and snow.  We think the best way to look at tomorrow's numbers is to take the average of those and the likely revised Dec. figure.  If the average is at or above 175K, it may reduce fears regarding the labor market.  Based on our model, we think that figure will be around 147K.  BLS will release employment numbers tomorrow morning at 8:30am (ET). 

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