Wednesday, April 30, 2014

April Manufacturing ISM & NFP ...

Thursday, 5/1, will be a busy day regarding some potentially market-moving macro indicators.  The ISM manufacturing along with jobless claims are scheduled to be released.  Of course, what Yellen says to the Independent Community Bankers of America, likely will be watched more closely, further displaying the fact that the economy, equity markets, and politicians' well-being remain completely dependent on the almighty Fed.  Economists expect initial jobless claims of 320K and manufacturing ISM of 54.3.  As usual, we have our own estimate for ISM.  Based on the regional surveys released during the last few weeks, we think manufacturing ISM will come in at 55.4. 

April net change in NFP

Looking a bit further ahead, the BLS employment report will be released this Friday, 5/2.  We estimate NFP increased by approx. 250K, higher than the 215K consensus.  While this may appear to be 'uberly optimistic', we remain confident in our model.  We note that although last month's official net change was 192K, below our 225K estimate, adding the 37K net revision of the prior two months (Jan. and Feb.) actually made our 'guesstimate' pretty accurate.  Again, we are looking for NFP change of 250K for April.  Of course, after the S&P 500 climbed again today (up 5.62 or 0.30%), even after the miserable initial Q1 GDP of 0.1% (of course impacted by that ever-present 'weather') and the Fed indicating further tapering, we believe the positive surprise may be priced in or hoped for.  We note S&P 500 is not too far from its all-time high of 1897.

No comments:

Post a Comment