Tuesday, May 13, 2014

April '14 Industrial Production Guesstimate ...

The industrial production numbers for April '14 are due out this Thursday (5/15) at 9:15am (ET).  Although we saw slight improvement in ISM-manufacturing, based on declines in production and backlog sub-indexes we expect a 0.11% decline in industrial production (or index of 103.13) versus the latest consensus of no change.  Regarding capacity utilization, we think most of the data including ISM-manufacturing's employment sub-index, and the mostly increasing work week hours from regional surveys, point to a slight increase in April.  We estimate capacity utilization of 79.3%, a 10bps sequential increase, and higher than the 79.2% consensus.  

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