Although we are a bit late this time, we thought to provide our guesstimate for tomorrow's BLS employment report. We estimate BLS will report a net change in NFP of +195K for August, below the 230K consensus. While ISM services employment sub-index was encouraging, we think it will be offset by slower growth in retail, and leisure and hospitality jobs. Although it is back-to-school season, we think disappointing retail numbers overall have likely forced many to take it easy on the hiring, at least in the beginning. And don't forget that as number of retail stores decline (due to continuing growth of ecommerce), so does the headcount. We also saw slowdown in job growth on the manufacturing side, based on regional surveys and ISM manufacturing. Regarding online indicators, total online job postings, in addition to new ones in August, did increase at the highest rate since June, which may be positive for September and Fall '14.
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