Monday, December 10, 2012

Nov. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization Expectations

Industrial production and capacity utilization for November will be released this Friday (12/14) morning.  As demonstrated by the ISM and employment stats, it is very difficult to estimate the impact of Sandy on these economic figures.  We continue to believe that, at least in the short-term, the economy was impacted negatively by Sandy and we may see a sign of that in Friday's economic numbers.  We estimate the industrial production index to come in at 96.0%, a 0.6% decline from the previous month.  The consensus stands at 96.9%, an increase of 0.3%.  Given the work week figures of most regional surveys and the ISM employment sub-indexes, along with other production indicators, we also expect to see a decline in capacity utilization.  Our projection stands at 76.6%, a 1.2% sequential decline.  The Street is expecting 78.0% or a 0.2% increase.

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