Thursday, December 6, 2012

Nov. NFP Projection ...

Unfortunately, due to some unexpected events, we were not able to provide our projections for Nov. ISM.  Manufacturing ISM missed expectations, while services ISM beat the consensus. 
However, we found some time to run our employment models.  The results are as follows: for Nov. we expect BLS to report an increase of 70K in the NFP count.  Our forecast is slightly below the 80K consensus. 
Obviously, the Sandy storm impacted the NFP numbers.  The storm was also an excuse used by Moody's on Wednesday morning to describe why ADP came in below expectations, even though most economists had already included an estimated impact of Sandy in their projections.  We note that weekly released initial claims had already climbed above the critical 350K level (seasonally adjusted) approx. 3 weeks before the storm hit the east coast.  In addition, those claims have remained near the 400K level even 4 weeks after Sandy.  Simply put, while Sandy impacted employment numbers negatively, we do not think it was as significant as it has been presented to us by the main uber-bullish, very popular and colorful US financial media outlet.  For this reason, we do not expect a significant bounce in the Dec. NFP count. 
Nov. employment report will be released on Friday (12/7) at 8:30AM (ET). 

No comments:

Post a Comment