Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Oct. '13 Industrial Production Guesstimate ...

The industrial production numbers for Oct. '13 are due out this Friday (11/15) at 9:15am (ET).  Given the slight sequential improvement we saw in ISM-manufacturing, we think we will see something similar with industrial production.  We estimate that index to have increased to 100.25 (from 100.04 in Sep. '13), versus the latest consensus of 100.14.  Regarding capacity utilization, while most of the indicators give a mixed picture, we think decline in ISM-manufacturing's employment sub-index and increase in backlogs offset the lower production sub-index and the mixed work week figures from the regional surveys.  We estimate capacity utilization of 79.6%, a 130bps sequential increase, and above the 78.3% consensus. 

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