Wednesday, June 4, 2014

May '14 NFP guesstimate of only 129K ...

BLS employment report will be released this Friday, 6/6.  Our model spit out an NFP increase of approx. 129K, significantly below the 213K Street consensus.  While initial jobless claims have been declining consistently, we note that such trend does not necessarily indicate acceleration of job growth, but rather a deceleration of job loss.  In addition, the ISM manufacturing and services employment sub-indexes were mixed in May, while the ADP report missed big.  Lastly, the latest online job postings, both total and new ones for May, declined slightly.  For these reasons we think the NFP net change in May employment report may turn out to be a big miss.

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