Friday, June 6, 2014

May '14 NFP increased by 217K; our guesstimate was off significantly ...

Well, our accuracy trend of estimating monthly net change in NFP ended abruptly today as May NFP increased 217K, slightly higher than the 213K estimate, and significantly above our 129K guesstimate.  Official unemployment rate remained at 6.3% with no change in labor force participation rate.  The U-6 rate dipped to 12.2% from 12.3% in April.  In terms of revisions, April NFP change was lowered by 6K to 282K while the March figure was unchanged at 203K.  Overall, the numbers were pretty much in-line with what the market expected, but we will see what happens next month, in terms of revisions.  We must say thank Goodness for those ever-increasing health services jobs as they increased by nearly 55K!  
  • Private NFP increased by 216K
  • On the production side (goods-producing), the biggest gainers were manufacturing (+10K) and construction (+6K)
  • Within manufacturing, strength in durable goods was offset partially by decline in non-durable goods, especially in food manufacturing
  • On the services side (private service-producing), led by education and health services (+63K), professional and business services (+55K), and leisure and hospitality (+39K). 
  • Health-services jobs jumped by 54.9K.  We are guessing that Americans aren't getting any healthier as jobs in this space continue to increase.  Or the Obamacare is actually creating the jobs, for good and bad reasons.
  • Professional and business services increased due to strength in technical services and those administrative employment services jobs.  Temp-help jobs continue to grow; whether that is good news or not, remains to be seen.
  • Wholesale trade jobs increased by 9.9K with strength in durable goods trade jobs partially offset by decline in nondurable goods.
  • Increase in retail trade jobs was helped by a 6.8K increase in car dealer related jobs but jobs in electronics and appliance stores declined by 5.1K
  • Information related jobs declined mainly due to another decline in motion picture and sound recording industries jobs.  
  • Average weekly hours remained unchanged while hourly earnings went up by a nickel or 0.2% from April; and by 2.05% from last year.   

S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% indicating possibly another record close for the equity market today.  Gold is up 0.14%, which is a bit surprising given the solid jobs report.  Front-month oil futures up 0.44%, maybe a bit more due to the good durables-related jobs numbers rather than the usual geopolitical factors. 

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