Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Jun '14 Industrial Production Guesstimate ...

The industrial production numbers for Jun '14 are due out this Wednesday (7/16) at 9:15am (ET).  With slight sequential decline in ISM-manufacturing, we expect a 0.3% increase in industrial production versus the latest consensus of 0.4%.  Regarding capacity utilization, we think most of the data including ISM-manufacturing's employment sub-index, and the increasing work week hours from regional surveys, point to an increase in June.  We estimate capacity utilization of 80.8%, a 150bps sequential increase, and higher than the 79.2% consensus.  In our opinion, if capacity utilization goes above 80%, it may be indicate a slowdown in future hiring.  

Lastly, we will post what we believe to be our CY '15 valuation of the S&P 500, before next Monday (7/21).  We publish our valuation of this index basically every six months. 

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