Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Jun '14 ISM manufacturing and NFP guesstimates ...

June ISM manufacturing will be released in approx. 8 hours at 10am (ET).  Based on mixed results of the regional surveys, we expect the overall index to come in at 55.0, a slight decline from May's 55.4 and below the 55.6 consensus.  The number of employees sub-index may disappoint.  

Given the short week due to the 4th of July holiday on Friday, BLS will release the June employment report on Thursday, 7/3.  Based on our model, we think change in NFP will disappoint by approximately 21K.  We estimate an increase of 190K, compared with the Street's estimate of 211K.  Initial claims (both seasonally adjusted and non-adjusted) actually increased slightly in June.  In addition, as mentioned before, growth in jobs on the manufacturing front has been mixed.  Lastly, given that summer has already begun, we don't expect the same spike in hospitality type jobs that we saw the last couple of months.

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