To our surprise, our model generated a July NFP change estimate of approx. 84K, which is below the Street's 100K, which we thought was conservative to begin with. We note that the extreme volatility that we saw in initial jobless claims in July likely impacted all estimates. The consensus is based on a wide 70K - 165K range. We again stress that our NFP estimate could change if the change in ADP comes in significantly above or below the current 120K consensus on Wednesday. Also as a reminder, our ISM estimate is 48.0. The ISM is scheduled to be released on Wednesday morning.
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