Thursday, July 5, 2012

Some Big Firms Upping Their NFP Estimates ...

Goldman Sachs (GS) increased its NFP estimate earlier this morning (after the services ISM report was released at 10am ET) to 125K from 75K.  GS' new projection is within the range that we suggested less than 20 minutes after the initial claims and ADP reports before the open.  In addition, its previous estimate was pretty much where ours is, 74K.  We're saying this because it appears the firm's daily adjustments are driven by the analyst's 'will' to be considered as accurate as possible.  Or we could ask - why didn't the analyst just tell his traders or clients that the better than expected ADP and initial claims could mean a better NFP?  Without officially changing an estimate, did the analyst really have to publish the 'revised' estimate?  Is such confidence valid as last month's 133K net change in ADP was very misleading?  Or was it published to drive muppets to act in a certain way; in other words, let's do something to up trading volume and make as much as we can via the fees before the huge Friday NFP report.  We're sticking with our 74K, which many believe to be too pessimistic.  Let's see what happens tomorrow. 

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