Thursday, September 6, 2012

ADP & Initial Claims Beat Expectations; NFP Estimate Updated

Better than expected ADP employment numbers and last week's initial jobless claims, along with ECB's continuing promises of monetary easing, have pushed S&P 500 futures up more than 8 points.  Gold front month futures is above $1700.  It appears VIX will take a dive at least in early trading this morning.  The higher ADP number upped our August NFP estimate to 110K from the 95K we posted earlier this week.  We note the NFP consensus remains at 125K.
August ADP private payroll figure of 201K was significantly above the 143K consensus.  In addition, the July number was revised up by 10K.
Initial jobless claims came in at 365K, below the Street's 370K estimate.  This number is somewhat encouraging as initial claims had been abover 370K for three straight weeks.  Of course, optimism must be held in check as the prior week's number was again revised up. 

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