Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Market Update & Our August NFP Estimate

The market remains in the red with the S&P 500 still down nearly 8 points.  VIX has 'stabilized' a bit, up only 6.5% compared to nearly 9% earlier this morning. Out of the sector ETFs, only utilities and consumer staples are in positive territories.  However, other sectors have begun to pare their losses.
Assuming an August ADP of 149K, which is currently the Street estimate, we expect a 95K August NFP print on Friday.  Our estimate is below the 125K consensus.
If the NFP is as bad as we think, the market's negative reaction could be limited with the growing expectation of a QE3 announcement at the Fed's FOMC meeting later this month.  We continue to doubt that any additional detail will be provided at the FOMC, given the upcoming election. 

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