Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Our Initial September Mfr. ISM Estimate

With the manufacturing ISM for September due out next week, we thought to provide some color regarding where we think that number will come in at.  We believe September manufacturing ISM will be within the 50.0 and 52.5 range.
Our manufacturing ISM model does include results of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City regional survey, which will not be reported until Thursday morning.  Once that number is out, we will have our final estimate by that afternoon.  The consensus for this economic indicator is not out yet, but we think it will be above 50.0, which is encouraging for the market, especially after coming in below 50.0 for three straight months.  However, based on regional employment sub-indexes and initial jobless claims, we do not expect this month's NFP to be as encouraging as the ISM.  We will post our NFP estimate at the end of this week. 

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