Wednesday, October 3, 2012

ADP September Employment Report

September ADP came in at 162K, significantly higher than the 140K consensus.  We will stick with our NFP net change estimate of 145K for September even after the ADP surprise to the upside.  The Street consensus for NFP is 113K.
  • While the number was better than expected, we note that it was accommodated by downward revisions to the July and August figures.  July was lowered by 17K and August by 12K.
  • Increases in manufacturing and construction jobs (4K and 10K, respectively) are pretty much in-line with our assumption for Friday's NFP count. 
  • The same can be said of the 144K jobs added in services, a nice chunk of which we believe will be categorized as temp services in Friday's NFP report.

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