The market remains uber-excited about the better than expected September Mfr. ISM which came out earlier this morning. S&P500 is up 0.9%. And VIX just got back in the red, down only .1%. With respect to S&P's sector ETFs, while the more cyclical sectors, such as materials, energy, financials, and industrials, are up 1%+, we note that the less cyclical consumer staples is also up nearly 1% while consumer discretionary is actually trailing staples, up only 0.5%.
Assuming a September ADP change of 140K, which is the Street's estimate, we expect to see a net change of 145K non-farm jobs in Friday's September employment report. Our estimate is at the high-end of the Street's 75K - 162K range and certainly above the 113K consensus. Our higher projection is based on the assumption of NFP growth in construction, manufacturing, education & health services, and temporary help services, partially offset by some weakness in retail trade and leisure & hospitality. Given the upcoming elections in November, we also expect a slightly higher NFP count on the government side of its so-called services. The Street expects a decline of 17K in the government NFP count.
No comments:
Post a Comment