Monday, October 29, 2012

Our October ISM & NFP Projections

With the markets closed today and possibly tomorrow (Tuesday, 10/30), we thought to provide our estimates for some of the very important economic indicators to be released later this week - ISM manufacturing (Oct.), ISM services (Oct.), and state of employment (Oct.).
With some relevant data on regional manufacturing activities released earlier this month, we expect overall ISM manufacturing index (to be released on Thursday, 11/1) to come in at 50.0, a decline from 51.5 in Sept.  The consensus currently stands at 51.5.  In addition, we have projected ISM services index of 51.0, lower than last month's 55.1.
Based on our research and some estimates such as the ADP employment report (which is due out on Thursday, 11/1), we have projected a 75K increase in NFP for Oct. indicating a slowdown in hiring as change in NFP during Sept. was 114K.  The consensus for Oct. stands at 125K. 
We note that although the state of employment report is scheduled to be released this Friday, according to the Wall Street Journal, the Labor Dept. may delay it due to the current "weather emergency", the storm and hurricane Sandy, in the East Coast.  We certainly hope and wish for everyone's well-being and safety.

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